Good analysis. It slightly masks the point that Europeans are being replaced by non-Europeans and this can continue even with zero net migration. But this is happening more slowly.
We've seen Reform's share of polling fall from around 30% to 25%. This is important. At the higher level it has a chance of forming the next government. At the lower level it does not.
If the net migration story is told effectively, then the marginal Reform voter may stick with their existing party. This will have a big impact on whether Nigel Farage can be PM.
Excellent work Fraser. The general citizen accepts some migration, but as you write there is a big concern surrounding the small boat and their occupants. Deportations do need to be speeded up to reassure a very sceptical public and disarm the ‘right’ of a very powerful message.
This is terrific analysis, many thanks for digging through it and presenting it and its interpretation so clearly.
I am perplexed as to why there hasn’t been a targeted press conference hammering home this massage to the electorate.
Your comment that Labour “……..seems horrified by this success and treats in like a dirty secret, interfering with its metanarrative that Brexit is a disaster to be mitigated.” seems to be incredibly short sighted.
It would appear Andy Burnham has just signed up. Needs to if to stand a chance against Reform. Mahmood is a king maker and determined to get this done.
Joke: A Blairite, a Starmerite, a Corbynite and a Brownite walk into a bar.
Thank you - I saw the term "basic migration" on Twitter and didn't know what to make of it, but this is very helpful.
It would also help if the ONS clarified the picture when it comes to emigration. Freddie Sayers wrote a really good analysis last year of the fact that many of the emigrants classed as British nationals are e.g. second generation immigrants with British passports returning to their families' country of origin, but he had needed to consult figures compiled by the UN for that (https://unherd.com/2025/12/are-we-heading-for-net-zero-immigration/).
Assuming Sayers was right, there is much less mileage in the narrative of plucky native Brits being driven abroad in droves by marauding foreigners than people seem to think. A balloon worth popping.
I agree that some of these trends are now going in the right direction. But I'm not convinced this analysis is as objective as it should be.
The "basic migration" label may be helpful, but it does not work and is arguably misleading for longer term comparisons. The overall net migration figure, including students, is similar for 2025 to what it was in 2016 - hardly low by any historic standard. I just don't buy the argument that Labour has sort of stumbled into achieving David Cameron's "net migration down to the tens of thousands" pledge - this is only true if students and "humanitarian" cases are ignored.
Given that students were allowed to come and study then work for a period, leading to a large peak c2023, one might expect this source to become negative, as people who came then decide or are obliged to return to their home country. Maybe I'm unduly sceptical in doubting this will occur.
The small boat crossings are down, but looking at the trend to date suggests they will still total 20-30k for 2026. Hardly something to brag about.
There were roughly 160k asylum decisions in 2025, of which about 55k were asylum granted. It's not clear what happened to the 100k+ people whose claims were rejected or withdrawn. The UK deportations figure for 2025 is only about 10k and presumably these are not all failed asylum seekers. Again, am I being unduly sceptical in thinking that people whose asylum claim is rejected have a pretty good chance of not being deported if they don't want to go?
More generally, I've not done my own research in this area, but my impression is that official statistics are limited and make it hard to see, for example, what happens when someone's asylum claim is rejected. As Neil O'Brien pointed out on Substack earlier this week, the government is also unwilling to publish other data, such as on crime committed by different nationalities (he could have added other things like cost to the NHS or housing). He could also have added that this silence is nothing new - the previous Conservative government also didn't make statistics available that might allow a properly informed debate about the costs and benefits of immigration, including immigration from different countries of origin.
A success story which is underpinned in part by rising emigration from the country … voters aren’t idiots, using terms like ‘net migration’ won’t kid them in the long run
Fraser, I still remember your article back when the net Migration figures peaked (before it was called the Boris wave) and you were excited that no one was talking about it or alarmed by it. You cited that as proof that Brexit was working that we could have high migration without the fears and anxiety.
Great article. Thank you for the data. Perhaps you need to block Ruth Harris and stop ridiculous comments being spread.
I think the backlog of dealing with illegal immigration is an important benchmark. As is the problem of deporting people. We don't need masked agents. We need more cooperation from countries whose citizens are attempting to illegally arrive in the UK.
Unfortunately it is all too late. The horse has bolted the stable doors are wide open. Even with net zero migration the UK is changed forever we just have to have policy to contain the consequences.
Great piece indeed. I am finding it is very difficult to try and get any point on migration success across, (to mostly Reform supporters) because when you get to the nitty gritty of it, they see all migrants as undesirable and in many cases all illegal anyway!
It won't matter! The voters to whom immigration is a top issue - a constituency which has widened due to a relentless focus on it for years by the Right - won't know, or indeed care.
"The latest findings from British Future’s annual Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that this shift has gone largely unnoticed by the public:
Just 16% of people think migration fell in the past year.
Half the public (49%) believe it increased, despite the sharp decline.
Most people (51%) expect migration to rise again next year: just one in six think it will fall."
Meanwhile Labour has made the mistake of fighting on ground chosen by the enemy. And consequently is losing votes to the Greens and Lib Dems, while not winning voters from Reform or the Tories.
Yes it’s actually pretty shocking that so much people from the Middle East has come to the country and don’t like our culture and history and country actually shameful
Good analysis. It slightly masks the point that Europeans are being replaced by non-Europeans and this can continue even with zero net migration. But this is happening more slowly.
We've seen Reform's share of polling fall from around 30% to 25%. This is important. At the higher level it has a chance of forming the next government. At the lower level it does not.
If the net migration story is told effectively, then the marginal Reform voter may stick with their existing party. This will have a big impact on whether Nigel Farage can be PM.
Vote Reform.
Excellent work Fraser. The general citizen accepts some migration, but as you write there is a big concern surrounding the small boat and their occupants. Deportations do need to be speeded up to reassure a very sceptical public and disarm the ‘right’ of a very powerful message.
This is terrific analysis, many thanks for digging through it and presenting it and its interpretation so clearly.
I am perplexed as to why there hasn’t been a targeted press conference hammering home this massage to the electorate.
Your comment that Labour “……..seems horrified by this success and treats in like a dirty secret, interfering with its metanarrative that Brexit is a disaster to be mitigated.” seems to be incredibly short sighted.
It would appear Andy Burnham has just signed up. Needs to if to stand a chance against Reform. Mahmood is a king maker and determined to get this done.
Joke: A Blairite, a Starmerite, a Corbynite and a Brownite walk into a bar.
The barman asks..
'Evening Mr Burnham, what will you be having?'
Thank you - I saw the term "basic migration" on Twitter and didn't know what to make of it, but this is very helpful.
It would also help if the ONS clarified the picture when it comes to emigration. Freddie Sayers wrote a really good analysis last year of the fact that many of the emigrants classed as British nationals are e.g. second generation immigrants with British passports returning to their families' country of origin, but he had needed to consult figures compiled by the UN for that (https://unherd.com/2025/12/are-we-heading-for-net-zero-immigration/).
Assuming Sayers was right, there is much less mileage in the narrative of plucky native Brits being driven abroad in droves by marauding foreigners than people seem to think. A balloon worth popping.
The "deluxe migration" model was a bit gaudy, wasn't it?
I agree that some of these trends are now going in the right direction. But I'm not convinced this analysis is as objective as it should be.
The "basic migration" label may be helpful, but it does not work and is arguably misleading for longer term comparisons. The overall net migration figure, including students, is similar for 2025 to what it was in 2016 - hardly low by any historic standard. I just don't buy the argument that Labour has sort of stumbled into achieving David Cameron's "net migration down to the tens of thousands" pledge - this is only true if students and "humanitarian" cases are ignored.
Given that students were allowed to come and study then work for a period, leading to a large peak c2023, one might expect this source to become negative, as people who came then decide or are obliged to return to their home country. Maybe I'm unduly sceptical in doubting this will occur.
The small boat crossings are down, but looking at the trend to date suggests they will still total 20-30k for 2026. Hardly something to brag about.
There were roughly 160k asylum decisions in 2025, of which about 55k were asylum granted. It's not clear what happened to the 100k+ people whose claims were rejected or withdrawn. The UK deportations figure for 2025 is only about 10k and presumably these are not all failed asylum seekers. Again, am I being unduly sceptical in thinking that people whose asylum claim is rejected have a pretty good chance of not being deported if they don't want to go?
More generally, I've not done my own research in this area, but my impression is that official statistics are limited and make it hard to see, for example, what happens when someone's asylum claim is rejected. As Neil O'Brien pointed out on Substack earlier this week, the government is also unwilling to publish other data, such as on crime committed by different nationalities (he could have added other things like cost to the NHS or housing). He could also have added that this silence is nothing new - the previous Conservative government also didn't make statistics available that might allow a properly informed debate about the costs and benefits of immigration, including immigration from different countries of origin.
A success story which is underpinned in part by rising emigration from the country … voters aren’t idiots, using terms like ‘net migration’ won’t kid them in the long run
Fraser, I still remember your article back when the net Migration figures peaked (before it was called the Boris wave) and you were excited that no one was talking about it or alarmed by it. You cited that as proof that Brexit was working that we could have high migration without the fears and anxiety.
We could all hope back then.
Minor typo in the hed / dek.
"The success that dare not speak is name" should instead be:
"The success that dare not speak its name"
Great article. Thank you for the data. Perhaps you need to block Ruth Harris and stop ridiculous comments being spread.
I think the backlog of dealing with illegal immigration is an important benchmark. As is the problem of deporting people. We don't need masked agents. We need more cooperation from countries whose citizens are attempting to illegally arrive in the UK.
You liar. 🤭🤭🤭🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣what a lie. They’re everywhere. Cities, towns, villages & hamlets. Deport ALL ILLEGALS.
Unfortunately it is all too late. The horse has bolted the stable doors are wide open. Even with net zero migration the UK is changed forever we just have to have policy to contain the consequences.
Great piece indeed. I am finding it is very difficult to try and get any point on migration success across, (to mostly Reform supporters) because when you get to the nitty gritty of it, they see all migrants as undesirable and in many cases all illegal anyway!
Vote Reform
Case proved m’ lud.
Rubbish.
Is this success really a consequence of powers conferred by Brexit? The decline has been overwhelmingly in non-EU migration.
It won't matter! The voters to whom immigration is a top issue - a constituency which has widened due to a relentless focus on it for years by the Right - won't know, or indeed care.
"The latest findings from British Future’s annual Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that this shift has gone largely unnoticed by the public:
Just 16% of people think migration fell in the past year.
Half the public (49%) believe it increased, despite the sharp decline.
Most people (51%) expect migration to rise again next year: just one in six think it will fall."
https://www.britishfuture.org/britain-thinks-net-migration-is-rising-when-it-has-actually-fallen-by-more-than-three-quarters/
And some will presume the stats are fixed.
Meanwhile Labour has made the mistake of fighting on ground chosen by the enemy. And consequently is losing votes to the Greens and Lib Dems, while not winning voters from Reform or the Tories.
Yes it’s actually pretty shocking that so much people from the Middle East has come to the country and don’t like our culture and history and country actually shameful