Can the British Army deploy to Ukraine?

The depressing reality of military data

Keir Starmer is quite right to bolster Zelensky and offer support, to give him leverage with Trump. But does the UK have the troops to deploy to Ukraine? I’ve been asking some defence sources. Here’s what they tell me.

The minimum expected for peacekeeping in Ukraine would be a division’s worth of troops (ie ~20k men) with the means to defend themselves adequately and be logistically sustainable. To maintain this on an enduring basis would require ~60k troops and nine combat brigades. Plus all the necessary enablers (medics, logistics, engineering etc). The British Army has nothing like this. We can - just about - put one weak brigade into the field. And can we expand? The truth is we struggle to fill the depleted roles available, as the below chart shows

We could build up the required force, but it would take a number of years - and would probably be the only commitment the army (or the armed forces as a whole) could meet. And remember that the UK - for all of our weakness - is one of the world’s stronger players. The PowerIndex score from Global Firepower is an interesting way to gauge the strength of various militaries. The countries now promising to help Ukraine are embarrassingly far down that list.

This is why I can’t believe Putin was seriously worried about Nato expansion: Nato has become an alliance of America’s pacifist friends with barely-there militaries who are a threat to no one. Perhaps this is why even Zelensky isn’t asking for European troops. At the Munich conference he said so in terms: in comments that I don’t think were picked by the UK press.

The question was: are we ready for a European contingent? I said that we are ready for a contingent consisting even exclusively of Ukrainians. The question is: what equipment? If we have 150-160 F-16 aircraft, 25+ Patriot systems, why do we need teams of US or Europeans?… It is desirable that these partners of ours who are professionals at sea [UK, Nordic countries - ed.], if they are professionals, it is desirable that they be at sea.”

So even Ukraine does not want European troops, perhaps fearing that they would run if Russia approaches. I recently wrote a column about the British twitch: wanting to shape the world, while forgetting we no longer have a military capable of doing so.

Starmer is right to offer to help Zelensky, but I hope this is a bluff on his part. We don’t have the troops anymore, and Kyiv knows it.