The London school mystery

Why do state-secondary pupils progress far faster in London than anywhere else?

One of the more shocking facts of UK public life is just how much better state school pupils do in London vs the rest of England. In an era where what you learn translates into what you earn, it’s a major source of inequality: the scandal is not, of course, that London schools do so well but that this same magic seems not to be working in the north of England. (I’m writing this from Edinburgh and am almost glad that these results don’t expose the notorious vandalisation of the Scottish state school curriculum.)

The test of teaching is progress, not final destinations. That is now measured in the new(ish) metric of Progress 8 (see chart, above) which was shown at a CSJ presentation at Tory conference this week (video here).

It’s a performance measure used in England to evaluate how much progress secondary school students make between the end of primary school (Key Stage 2) and the end of secondary school (Key Stage 4/GCSEs), compared to other students with similar starting points.

Here’s how it works:

The calculation: Progress 8 measures student progress across 8 qualifications:

• English (double weighted, so counts twice)

• Mathematics (double weighted)

• Three subjects from the so-called English Baccalaureate (sciences, computer science, geography, history, languages)

• Three additional approved qualifications (can be GCSEs or approved non-GCSEs)

The Score:

• A score of 0 means students made average progress compared to similar students nationally

• Positive scores (like +0.5) mean students made above-average progress

• Negative scores (like -0.3) mean students made below-average progress

• Each point roughly represents one grade’s worth of progress

What makes it different: Unlike raw exam results, Progress 8 accounts for students’ different starting points. For that reason, some see it as the mark of good teaching: fill a secondary with child geniuses sifted out at the 11+ and they’ll do well in A-Levels if they were taught by an inflatable doll. Conversely, a teacher taking in the toughest kids - who barely passed their primary school exams - and turns them around is doing a far-harder job but may not see many students go to uni.

A school taking students with lower prior attainment might have lower raw GCSE grades but still have a good Progress 8 score if those students progressed well from their starting point.

Schools in England are held accountable for their Progress 8 scores, and they’re published in performance tables. A score below -0.5 might trigger additional scrutiny from Ofsted, the schools inspector.

The measure aims to encourage schools to focus on all students’ progress rather than just those at grade boundaries, and to value a broad curriculum rather than focusing only on certain subjects.

I have no idea why London pupils seem do so much better - but this Substack is a notebook. A note to self. Any thoughts would be welcome.