Rubbish. Violent crime *reports* might have been demonstrably falling for years, but few people I know would bother reporting anything to the police let alone interacting with them as a witness. Because they know the police, courts and the rest of the criminal justice system including prisons have been a joke and useless for quite a few years now due to the many failures of the ConDemLab uni-party. I am a retired London cop and have seen the collapse at first hand.
Few people you know. And that’s exactly the weakness of anecdotal arguments such as yours. Or mine. Or anyone’s. We can’t know enough people, or enough people who know enough people….to know the full picture. So what’s the best, not perfect, answer? Well, as Fraser demonstrates very well, it’s to take the best (not perfect) available data, triangulate it then make a reasoned call. Failing that, am all ears on your alternative & more reliable method. And I’ll give you a clue: it’s not shouting ‘rubbish’.
Correct except for under reporting of crime. Sadly, the smashing of car windows on the off chance a bag left inside is worth pilfering is widespread in London. No one I know has reported the crimes because insurance premiums would rise and wipe out any claim.
And online fraud is also rising rapidly. There must be a simple way of presenting non-household ('victimless') crimes like those against businesses or drug possession, which contribute to the degradation of place, alongside the household data.
Fraser, good article but I wish I shared your confidence that "The simple act of data availability will counter fake news in the social-media era." Surely that relies on the media being prepared to more rigorously challenge the lies that you show are being propagated so readily.
Hi Richard (great name, btw) no I refer to the new era of disintermediation where people are far more able to do their own research - via AI, not just Google. If HMG data was available on open API and ergo via AI then the full, truthful picture is easier to find. So its punters. If the average bloke wants to google London Crime what does he find? If there was a reliable London Crime dashboard provided by HMG as in Covid, that cuts out role for middlemen acting in bad or good faith. But this disintermediation is an act of journalism: it's what I tried to do to a small extent with teh Spectator Data Hub. I'm now working on creating a more general public datahub along the lines of the old HMG Covid Data that anyone could use.
Nice article but the idea that truth will chase out false narratives is a bit naive ( this was Mark Zuckerberg's lie to himself on his approach path to free speech absolutism). Facts don't result in substantial monetisable engagement, neither do the journos who are thoughtful enough to use them.
It's a good but separate point. Better reporting and changed definitions mean rape figures are not comparable: so the rise in reported rapes cannot be said to mean a corresponding rise in rape. But that's not to say that there's not a serious and urgent problem. This is a sensitive topic that - you'll be pleased to hear - i'm researching right now and talking to the relevant criminologists.
Credit to you for responding and what you say is not wholly unreasonable, but requires more justification.
Given the thrust of your article, however (which could be summarised as pointing to disreputable sorts being selective to promote their agenda), you open yourself up to a double standard by doing the same yourself.
I’m not sure the data on rape and sexual assault is as emphatic as you suggest. But I’ll await what you have to say about that.
Yes, I’m not taking issue with that. But there is good money to be made from the analysis and interpretation of data, of course.
My point is that you have omitted some prominent data that, at least on the face of it, would not support your central assertion. You may have reasons for that; but you are an intelligent enough man to understand that looks dodgy… in a piece of writing that discusses the manipulation of data for political ends.
Yes, I'm aware that I don't tackle rape figures and that's a conspicuous absence. The reason is that I haven't looked into it enough, but i hope to remedy that soon!
Good piece- Look at their dire performance at local government level, where propaganda has hit statutory duties and already tight budgets, exposing the latest incarceration of one man’s bruised ego as a joke led by some just unpleasant people. Most people do not really think 24 -7. about their priorities? There have dire social media histories which would get you banned from the snug. In other words, not fit to be in power. Trump card is like Labour and CND in 1980”s , Reform do not pass the sniff test on that basic duty of a government protecting its people. Dressed like a tick tack man about to be moved on by the Surrey police at the Derby, bet an always cheap, no class , grafting bully in Nigel regrets those 12 RT appearances now?
But stats are not cutting through as the worst violent and rape can be spectacularly awful- a couple of cases on the Central line and District genuinely chill the blood.
That’s why Farage keeps popping up that and the torrent of far right material out there who don’t do elections or policing by consent by any measure- a good kicking is more their style.There have been a billion hits on this toxic wasteland in the UK recently. That’s v scary.
As with Polanski, you can present clear cut evidence as much as you like, but until we find a way of handling populist crap, Farage and him get to frame the debate.
Immigration is historically low under Labour- try telling that thanks to Nige- for the sake of democracy we have to find a way of speaking above Zak, Nige, Tommy,and not forgetting, the self- imploding Fruit and Nut” Party. Loathe populism or political dishonesty in other words.
Pps - a name Claire Fox (ex- RCP)- Warrington- not a v nice person. Boris put her in the Lords- ex Preston Poly alumni- and now with Reform. It would be just plain rude to mention Putin? I thought we took disliking the Russian bear as a given? We use to leave that one to tragic Tankies
Hating people is not a platform for government nor flogging crypto currencies- yeah, no fan of Boris- a populist. I see those who voted Reform better not get old as Darren Grimes thinks homes etc are unaffordable Estes of money. Give me MacMillan.
I'd choose populism over elitism any day. And, before you start sneering, look where elitism has got us? Farage may not be everyone's cup of tea, but I agree with quite a lot of what he says, and I have promised myself, lifelong Tory that I was, never to vote Tory again, simply because they betrayed my trust...often. I will never forgive them for the half-cocked Brexit they delivered, now being rolled back on the sly by a lying toad of a communist, and their failure to repeal the four thousand pieces of European legislation they promised to get rid of. I shall be voting Reform.
Reform. Tried to Trumpism, Israel & zionism.. led by another elite billionaire whose main home is in Belgium
More of the same. Has done nothing for his constituents according to them
How about a non money driven polition, loyal to only Britain, main residence here, Brirish passport only, not easy to be corrupted by money or zionists offering money? Importantly for me, stops zionists buying up the UK anymore. They own every thing.
Brilliantly written and well researched. It will always be possible for the populist peoples front (aka Reform & Farage) to cite individual examples to back up their claims whilst as you say shutting down any questions from jolly impertinent journalists. The fact that all this is done just so he can get into power and grift his way into the pockets of US billionaires and that he does this so blatantly and yet he continues to be treated as if this is not the case. He and the other populist leaders are determined to destroy society for nothing more than their own benefit 🤢
I think you are wrong. It is the elites who are determined to destroy our society. It's all very well curling your lip up at populism, but elitism has done us no favours at all.
To what elite do you refer too? For if Farage isn’t the embodiment of an elite politician I am unsure who is? He attended Dulwich college as a boarder were the fees are £1000s a year, after which becoming a city trader. This is elitism personified
Whatever his background, Nigel Farage has striven to listen to the concerns of ordinary people. He is, I repeat, actually LISTENING. This is something the elites tend to ignore eg the outcome of the Brexit vote, which those on high have sought and are still seeking to reverse.
There is far too much secrecy with official data. For example, I did some research a few months ago about police facial recognition technology, which was under attack by various left wing groups, partly because it's supposedly racist. The facts show it isn't. Among what I found was the following, which supports the idea that the police focusing more on heavily black areas makes sense - even though, in fact, they do not use facial recognition technology in this way (taken from my blog post):
"The figures for people formally accused of various serious offences are even worse. For example, Met Police figures for 2022 show that the percentage of black suspects against whom prosecutions were brought was nearly 30% for sex offences, 33% for violence against the person, 47% for knife crime, 53% for robbery, 59% for homicide and 64% for gun crime, all relative to a black population in London of around 13.5%."
These figures are pretty sensitive, a well as being shocking. I'm surprised the Met released them, but it was following a FOI request, not a standard release.
If Reform UK nosed around and asked difficult FOI questions, I'm sure they'd find some genuine data to back up their views, instead of making stuff up.
I'm Freeblogger on Substack, in case anyone wants to check the original source or read the piece.
Great piece. The disjunction between the incidence and fear of crime (and what causes this) has intrigued me ever since I was involved in looking at it professionally for the Met 30 years ago. Thoughtful perspectives on this are needed as much now as ever for exactly the reasons you mention. Thank you.
Great article! It would help a lot if police crime stats were easier to access and share. The lurid headlines are not backed up by figures in my borough. This causes fear and general outrage which is draining and poorly informed.
There is huge pressure on cops to "write off" crime allegations that are made and to NFA them - take No Further Action. That is routinely done by re-classifying allegations as a less serious offence (common assault instead of ABH, burglary attempts downgraded to criminal damage). Or they are marked as a "No Crime" by means such as a letter to the victim asking for contact within seven days and posting it too late to meet that deadline. Unless of course an easy Crime Clear Up is available, such as by persuading a gullible arrestee to admit what cannot be proven to be an offence by accepting a caution or pleading guilty at court..... Even if they ask for a lawyer the appointed legal rep can be complicit for the sake of an easy life. Does that sound familiar to anyone?
Excellent article Fraser. Forgive me if you have referred to this data in the past but what of the data that shows many foreign nationals disproportionately represented in a number of violent and sexual crimes?
Those figures are cooked up by social media. A proper indication - that would need age-adjusted - has yet to be done. i hope it is done quickly: trolls fill the vacuum.
The problem for your position is that police-recorded crime (PRC) is the gold standard for the high-harm, well-reported crimes which everybody cares about, and the surveys are mostly a convenience for those who prefer to sweep bad news under the carpet. Yes, the surveys are useful from a criminological perspective because they do capture less serious crimes, and are useful for seeing the way that many unreported property crimes mainly affect those in relative property, but they shouldn't be taken seriously when it comes to serious crimes.
And a 7% dip in reported knife crimes up to August 2025 is hardly a 'plunge'. It may be an indicator that Scottish Public Health policing is finally beginning to work in London, but it's far too early to tell, besides which the approach is underfunded in London, lacks the laser focus which was so successful in Scotland, which principally worked because of the male mentoring offered to youth reform candidates through access to training in better paid, higher status, 'blue collar' vocations, and fails in some respects to address the need for community consultation and involvement, as well as consensual parental involvement in the process.
Your point about better reporting mechanisms is accurate, but this ignores the incredibly granular detail of local data available through PRC, which clearly demonstrates that violence is a social contagion best tackled by data-driven, targeted and proactive policing. This doesn't necessarily mean more stop and frisk, but even the most honest Left-leaning liberal and progressive criminologists do admit that it does call for more hotspot policing in communities blighted by violence. This may actually be cause for optimism on the London dip, given that the MET has successfully been using hotspot with great success in higher crime communities, and it may be the case that this approach has shown marked results on a local level. Granular detail tend to reveal more than overall data, at the city-level.
The ONS may prefer the CSEW data, but that's understandable given the fact the civil service rarely relishes being the bearer of bad tidings. Anyway, here is an article about a study from Royal Holloway and Lancaster University, which includes a link, and criticises the ONS for using CSEW to the exclusion of PRC, when the better approach would be to publish and incorporate both in official data, especially given that PRC tend to be more accurate for violent crimes.
'Professor Sylvia Walby, from the Department of Law and Criminology at Royal Holloway, and co-author of the study, said: “Our assessment of the methodology is that the quality of the data on violent crime in police recorded crime has improved while that in the Crime Survey for England and Wales has declined.”'
'The comparison of the aligned datasets shows that in 2022-23 there were nearly 1,300,000 reported assaults reported to the police, compared with just over 400,000 reported assaults estimated by the Crime Survey- more than three times as large.'
'Professor Walby added: “Based on our estimates, the CSEW seriously underestimates the volume of violent crime in England and Wales. We believe the main part of the CSEW has always underestimated violent crime, and this has become visible now that police data has improved.”'
But…unfortunately I think we live in what I call an ‘Indignant Society’ these days. It feeds off bad news…fed by media who have more to gain from feeding us with the same.
We have high expectations - because we are promised them as consumers. We seek/demand perfection -which is maybe fair enough.
Even those committing crime feel entitled. Life’s not fair on them, so they go and get what they want. Police are so busy they let them have it. And so on…
So facts are a stabilising factor, but few find them palatable, even if they manage to find them at all.
I am very disappointed at you Fraser, for blaming the messenger. Majority of us are sick and tired of crimes crimes and more crimes. Falling rate means f all when you look at the figures without emotion or analysis or real life evidence- how many rapes and burglaries take place daily? If someone doesn’t report it it’s because the Met is totally incompetent to deal with the reports. The victims are either being shoved to the sides silenced (as in the rape gangs). Burglaries happen but the police don’t even bother to turn up at the crime scene.
So yes the figures seemingly fell but reality tells a totally different and sad story.
Reform at least highlights this pandemic but you? Do you even bother to dig a little deeper and criticise the Met and the government?
Rubbish. Violent crime *reports* might have been demonstrably falling for years, but few people I know would bother reporting anything to the police let alone interacting with them as a witness. Because they know the police, courts and the rest of the criminal justice system including prisons have been a joke and useless for quite a few years now due to the many failures of the ConDemLab uni-party. I am a retired London cop and have seen the collapse at first hand.
I reported three crimes to the police in a couple of years. I then did a Subject Access Request and guess what? Not recorded as a crime.
Very well done for doing that. Fascinating. I was minded to do that myself but hadn't reported a crime so it was a bit difficult
Do a PNC Subject Access Request on yourself as well. You'll probably find a NCHI recorded against you.... 🤔
In fairness, my constabulary are very good on NCHIs, and I don’t do X, Facebook or such, so I should be ok…
Few people you know. And that’s exactly the weakness of anecdotal arguments such as yours. Or mine. Or anyone’s. We can’t know enough people, or enough people who know enough people….to know the full picture. So what’s the best, not perfect, answer? Well, as Fraser demonstrates very well, it’s to take the best (not perfect) available data, triangulate it then make a reasoned call. Failing that, am all ears on your alternative & more reliable method. And I’ll give you a clue: it’s not shouting ‘rubbish’.
Correct except for under reporting of crime. Sadly, the smashing of car windows on the off chance a bag left inside is worth pilfering is widespread in London. No one I know has reported the crimes because insurance premiums would rise and wipe out any claim.
FT covered this topic with data really well. The data shows that violent crime has decreased but “visible” crime has increased leading to public perception of increased crime. https://www.ft.com/content/7488fe4c-5e1d-4b2b-adab-f42ad5273fc9
And online fraud is also rising rapidly. There must be a simple way of presenting non-household ('victimless') crimes like those against businesses or drug possession, which contribute to the degradation of place, alongside the household data.
Fraser, good article but I wish I shared your confidence that "The simple act of data availability will counter fake news in the social-media era." Surely that relies on the media being prepared to more rigorously challenge the lies that you show are being propagated so readily.
Hi Richard (great name, btw) no I refer to the new era of disintermediation where people are far more able to do their own research - via AI, not just Google. If HMG data was available on open API and ergo via AI then the full, truthful picture is easier to find. So its punters. If the average bloke wants to google London Crime what does he find? If there was a reliable London Crime dashboard provided by HMG as in Covid, that cuts out role for middlemen acting in bad or good faith. But this disintermediation is an act of journalism: it's what I tried to do to a small extent with teh Spectator Data Hub. I'm now working on creating a more general public datahub along the lines of the old HMG Covid Data that anyone could use.
Nice article but the idea that truth will chase out false narratives is a bit naive ( this was Mark Zuckerberg's lie to himself on his approach path to free speech absolutism). Facts don't result in substantial monetisable engagement, neither do the journos who are thoughtful enough to use them.
No mention of rape. Now why might that be?
It's a good but separate point. Better reporting and changed definitions mean rape figures are not comparable: so the rise in reported rapes cannot be said to mean a corresponding rise in rape. But that's not to say that there's not a serious and urgent problem. This is a sensitive topic that - you'll be pleased to hear - i'm researching right now and talking to the relevant criminologists.
Credit to you for responding and what you say is not wholly unreasonable, but requires more justification.
Given the thrust of your article, however (which could be summarised as pointing to disreputable sorts being selective to promote their agenda), you open yourself up to a double standard by doing the same yourself.
I’m not sure the data on rape and sexual assault is as emphatic as you suggest. But I’ll await what you have to say about that.
Hi Rick, all of my data is linked and source to official resources. Other stats are available!
Hello Fraser,
Yes, I’m not taking issue with that. But there is good money to be made from the analysis and interpretation of data, of course.
My point is that you have omitted some prominent data that, at least on the face of it, would not support your central assertion. You may have reasons for that; but you are an intelligent enough man to understand that looks dodgy… in a piece of writing that discusses the manipulation of data for political ends.
Yes, I'm aware that I don't tackle rape figures and that's a conspicuous absence. The reason is that I haven't looked into it enough, but i hope to remedy that soon!
Fair enough. I look forward to it.
And all credit to you for engaging in good faith with hoi polloi (such as I).
Good piece- Look at their dire performance at local government level, where propaganda has hit statutory duties and already tight budgets, exposing the latest incarceration of one man’s bruised ego as a joke led by some just unpleasant people. Most people do not really think 24 -7. about their priorities? There have dire social media histories which would get you banned from the snug. In other words, not fit to be in power. Trump card is like Labour and CND in 1980”s , Reform do not pass the sniff test on that basic duty of a government protecting its people. Dressed like a tick tack man about to be moved on by the Surrey police at the Derby, bet an always cheap, no class , grafting bully in Nigel regrets those 12 RT appearances now?
But stats are not cutting through as the worst violent and rape can be spectacularly awful- a couple of cases on the Central line and District genuinely chill the blood.
That’s why Farage keeps popping up that and the torrent of far right material out there who don’t do elections or policing by consent by any measure- a good kicking is more their style.There have been a billion hits on this toxic wasteland in the UK recently. That’s v scary.
As with Polanski, you can present clear cut evidence as much as you like, but until we find a way of handling populist crap, Farage and him get to frame the debate.
Immigration is historically low under Labour- try telling that thanks to Nige- for the sake of democracy we have to find a way of speaking above Zak, Nige, Tommy,and not forgetting, the self- imploding Fruit and Nut” Party. Loathe populism or political dishonesty in other words.
Pps - a name Claire Fox (ex- RCP)- Warrington- not a v nice person. Boris put her in the Lords- ex Preston Poly alumni- and now with Reform. It would be just plain rude to mention Putin? I thought we took disliking the Russian bear as a given? We use to leave that one to tragic Tankies
Wastes
Hating people is not a platform for government nor flogging crypto currencies- yeah, no fan of Boris- a populist. I see those who voted Reform better not get old as Darren Grimes thinks homes etc are unaffordable Estes of money. Give me MacMillan.
Ps I like my Pm”s to have a British passport and pay tax in this country- call me old fashioned.
I'd choose populism over elitism any day. And, before you start sneering, look where elitism has got us? Farage may not be everyone's cup of tea, but I agree with quite a lot of what he says, and I have promised myself, lifelong Tory that I was, never to vote Tory again, simply because they betrayed my trust...often. I will never forgive them for the half-cocked Brexit they delivered, now being rolled back on the sly by a lying toad of a communist, and their failure to repeal the four thousand pieces of European legislation they promised to get rid of. I shall be voting Reform.
Reform. Tried to Trumpism, Israel & zionism.. led by another elite billionaire whose main home is in Belgium
More of the same. Has done nothing for his constituents according to them
How about a non money driven polition, loyal to only Britain, main residence here, Brirish passport only, not easy to be corrupted by money or zionists offering money? Importantly for me, stops zionists buying up the UK anymore. They own every thing.
Brilliantly written and well researched. It will always be possible for the populist peoples front (aka Reform & Farage) to cite individual examples to back up their claims whilst as you say shutting down any questions from jolly impertinent journalists. The fact that all this is done just so he can get into power and grift his way into the pockets of US billionaires and that he does this so blatantly and yet he continues to be treated as if this is not the case. He and the other populist leaders are determined to destroy society for nothing more than their own benefit 🤢
I think you are wrong. It is the elites who are determined to destroy our society. It's all very well curling your lip up at populism, but elitism has done us no favours at all.
To what elite do you refer too? For if Farage isn’t the embodiment of an elite politician I am unsure who is? He attended Dulwich college as a boarder were the fees are £1000s a year, after which becoming a city trader. This is elitism personified
Whatever his background, Nigel Farage has striven to listen to the concerns of ordinary people. He is, I repeat, actually LISTENING. This is something the elites tend to ignore eg the outcome of the Brexit vote, which those on high have sought and are still seeking to reverse.
There is far too much secrecy with official data. For example, I did some research a few months ago about police facial recognition technology, which was under attack by various left wing groups, partly because it's supposedly racist. The facts show it isn't. Among what I found was the following, which supports the idea that the police focusing more on heavily black areas makes sense - even though, in fact, they do not use facial recognition technology in this way (taken from my blog post):
"The figures for people formally accused of various serious offences are even worse. For example, Met Police figures for 2022 show that the percentage of black suspects against whom prosecutions were brought was nearly 30% for sex offences, 33% for violence against the person, 47% for knife crime, 53% for robbery, 59% for homicide and 64% for gun crime, all relative to a black population in London of around 13.5%."
These figures are pretty sensitive, a well as being shocking. I'm surprised the Met released them, but it was following a FOI request, not a standard release.
If Reform UK nosed around and asked difficult FOI questions, I'm sure they'd find some genuine data to back up their views, instead of making stuff up.
I'm Freeblogger on Substack, in case anyone wants to check the original source or read the piece.
Great piece. The disjunction between the incidence and fear of crime (and what causes this) has intrigued me ever since I was involved in looking at it professionally for the Met 30 years ago. Thoughtful perspectives on this are needed as much now as ever for exactly the reasons you mention. Thank you.
Great article! It would help a lot if police crime stats were easier to access and share. The lurid headlines are not backed up by figures in my borough. This causes fear and general outrage which is draining and poorly informed.
Thank you for your dedication to actual facts!
There is huge pressure on cops to "write off" crime allegations that are made and to NFA them - take No Further Action. That is routinely done by re-classifying allegations as a less serious offence (common assault instead of ABH, burglary attempts downgraded to criminal damage). Or they are marked as a "No Crime" by means such as a letter to the victim asking for contact within seven days and posting it too late to meet that deadline. Unless of course an easy Crime Clear Up is available, such as by persuading a gullible arrestee to admit what cannot be proven to be an offence by accepting a caution or pleading guilty at court..... Even if they ask for a lawyer the appointed legal rep can be complicit for the sake of an easy life. Does that sound familiar to anyone?
Yes. This is part of the picture. No question.
So the crime figures are fudged, then?
Agreed! We need more Fraser Nelson and easier access to the truth surrounding crime figures.
Excellent article Fraser. Forgive me if you have referred to this data in the past but what of the data that shows many foreign nationals disproportionately represented in a number of violent and sexual crimes?
Those figures are cooked up by social media. A proper indication - that would need age-adjusted - has yet to be done. i hope it is done quickly: trolls fill the vacuum.
The problem for your position is that police-recorded crime (PRC) is the gold standard for the high-harm, well-reported crimes which everybody cares about, and the surveys are mostly a convenience for those who prefer to sweep bad news under the carpet. Yes, the surveys are useful from a criminological perspective because they do capture less serious crimes, and are useful for seeing the way that many unreported property crimes mainly affect those in relative property, but they shouldn't be taken seriously when it comes to serious crimes.
And a 7% dip in reported knife crimes up to August 2025 is hardly a 'plunge'. It may be an indicator that Scottish Public Health policing is finally beginning to work in London, but it's far too early to tell, besides which the approach is underfunded in London, lacks the laser focus which was so successful in Scotland, which principally worked because of the male mentoring offered to youth reform candidates through access to training in better paid, higher status, 'blue collar' vocations, and fails in some respects to address the need for community consultation and involvement, as well as consensual parental involvement in the process.
Your point about better reporting mechanisms is accurate, but this ignores the incredibly granular detail of local data available through PRC, which clearly demonstrates that violence is a social contagion best tackled by data-driven, targeted and proactive policing. This doesn't necessarily mean more stop and frisk, but even the most honest Left-leaning liberal and progressive criminologists do admit that it does call for more hotspot policing in communities blighted by violence. This may actually be cause for optimism on the London dip, given that the MET has successfully been using hotspot with great success in higher crime communities, and it may be the case that this approach has shown marked results on a local level. Granular detail tend to reveal more than overall data, at the city-level.
The ONS may prefer the CSEW data, but that's understandable given the fact the civil service rarely relishes being the bearer of bad tidings. Anyway, here is an article about a study from Royal Holloway and Lancaster University, which includes a link, and criticises the ONS for using CSEW to the exclusion of PRC, when the better approach would be to publish and incorporate both in official data, especially given that PRC tend to be more accurate for violent crimes.
https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/news/new-study-examines-conflicting-data-on-official-violent-crime-stats/
'Professor Sylvia Walby, from the Department of Law and Criminology at Royal Holloway, and co-author of the study, said: “Our assessment of the methodology is that the quality of the data on violent crime in police recorded crime has improved while that in the Crime Survey for England and Wales has declined.”'
'The comparison of the aligned datasets shows that in 2022-23 there were nearly 1,300,000 reported assaults reported to the police, compared with just over 400,000 reported assaults estimated by the Crime Survey- more than three times as large.'
'Professor Walby added: “Based on our estimates, the CSEW seriously underestimates the volume of violent crime in England and Wales. We believe the main part of the CSEW has always underestimated violent crime, and this has become visible now that police data has improved.”'
A worthy piece Fraser - keep the facts coming!
But…unfortunately I think we live in what I call an ‘Indignant Society’ these days. It feeds off bad news…fed by media who have more to gain from feeding us with the same.
We have high expectations - because we are promised them as consumers. We seek/demand perfection -which is maybe fair enough.
Even those committing crime feel entitled. Life’s not fair on them, so they go and get what they want. Police are so busy they let them have it. And so on…
So facts are a stabilising factor, but few find them palatable, even if they manage to find them at all.
When a country brags about falling crimes rates, they have failed their citizens.
I am very disappointed at you Fraser, for blaming the messenger. Majority of us are sick and tired of crimes crimes and more crimes. Falling rate means f all when you look at the figures without emotion or analysis or real life evidence- how many rapes and burglaries take place daily? If someone doesn’t report it it’s because the Met is totally incompetent to deal with the reports. The victims are either being shoved to the sides silenced (as in the rape gangs). Burglaries happen but the police don’t even bother to turn up at the crime scene.
So yes the figures seemingly fell but reality tells a totally different and sad story.
Reform at least highlights this pandemic but you? Do you even bother to dig a little deeper and criticise the Met and the government?
There is way too much nonsense being quoted as facts on podcasts and social media - this gap is exploited by the right wing currently.
There should be a push for greater transparency of government statistics.
Where tax comes from, where is money spent centrally and locally, who funds political parties and also crime stats as per the article.
ONS may argue its available already - but this should be more consumer / voter friendly.