This is clearly an issue that will only continue to increase. It is a shame that reforms failed: I really think the Tories made a mistake by voting against the reforms. There needs to be tough action now, or it will be much harder to deal with in the future. Fiscally, I am very worried for the future: I think that the government will need to take an approach to curb spending, not just to prevent tax rises but to cut the deficit.
Look especially at Birmingham which has apparently rocketed up around the end of last year. The numbers don't look credible, but if they are right, there's something else going on. A large proportion of the population of Birmingham seem to have decided to register for employment benefit at about the same time. A fiddle?
Worth asking which producer vested interests in government and beyond benefit from this situation? And how to apply the carrot and stick to incentivise better outcomes?
Considering there's a 6 month data lag, does anyone know if Labour's recent-ish reforms earlier this year will change these statistics seen in this article in any meaningful way?
Is there any possibility that a small number of assessors are disproportionately responsible for signing people onto benefits? Is the cause stated anywhere in the data, and if so, are various mental health conditions listed?
Fraser, as always a well explained matter. But it’s easy to think it’s fraudulent. Shirkers or those playing the game., but that’s not the cause, it’s another symptom. I can’t remember when but maybe in the seventies, I first heard about shirkers and frauds in the benefits system. This is nothing new! It used to be doctors who decided ill health qualification. But, previous governments decided y to hey would decide to weed out those who shouldn’t get it. Now they use outsourcing to decide trying to use deliberately confusing questions not to weed out those who don’t deserve it but trap out those who do deserve welfare. It’s a shambles. The cost of policing it is so high it fails to cover its costs in savings. As for the unemployed, then they are just that. Any working person of working age not in work is unemployed!! And in that figure are the unemployable. Those who will never be given a job. That’s just a fact. Of course there are more claiming sickness. We have had Covid 19. It’s a killer but also a corrosive disease that affects people’s ability to be well. And you combine that with poor medical care, just ask solicitors chasing claims for negligence. The hospitals employ any Tom Dick or Harriet from anywhere to do the jobs cheaper than the best surgeons. Plus they put off medical procedures leaving those unable to work. You name it it’s explainable.
So I’m sorry Fraser, it’s just how it is! What is needed is to put right the causes of our distress not just point out the symptoms.
The whole problem is the government can’t get sufficient tax revenue from the pot that pays the tax because, the pot is devoid of enough money to attain the tax target required to pay the governments way!
There is a playing out of the reality that is … the rich get richer whilst the poor get poorer. … if you can’t see it Fraser, what you and I are witnessing is just that! … if you’ve ever wondered what it looks like, go to Blackpool, go to Clacton, Birmingham and Liverpool. You will see the poorest in our country. The weakest the most needy all together. They tend to be together where the economy is devoid of money. What do you think it would look like? Mayfair, Virginia water or sandbanks? Look, we are not living beyond our means. We are not providing sufficient money into the economy to produce the means we require to pay the tax revenue needed to pay the governments way! Our working pot is akin to Blackpool it’s devoid of money! No matter what tax rates are put in it the pot cannot produce the revenue to meet the tax burden.
Why? Because, must of our money, sterling pounds, us not in our pot! It’s sitting in bank accounts across the world not here, anywhere but here! They say, 95% of all money is held by 5% of the most wealthy people. I’m not sure if that’s true, but it shows most of our money is not in our working pot! It’s anywhere but!!
Those figures mean that 95% of us working in the pot, are fighting over just 5% of our money. No wonder we can’t pay our way!
And when we borrow our money back we borrow it from the rich 5% and what do they want? It all back plus more! Interest!!
Can you not see the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer?? You must see it Fraser.
Now imagine, if all our money, 19 trillion pounds of it were spent every month in our economy in Blackpool and Clacton etc can you not imagine the tax all that spending would bring in?
So much the coffers of the exchequer would be overflowing! 6.5 million would no longer be a burden but a petty cash voucher!
What we need is total spending. Exchange money cash for digital money. Digital account within UK. No money allowed to go out. Goods can flow but not money.,put a spend by date on it. Make all money rotate. A fair exchange of work. The resultant tsunami of revenue will mean we need only one tax. Vat. And so much spending will ensure more benefits not less. A much higher pension. Much higher wages. To show a clear gap over benefits. To show work really does pay. And ironically the rich will be richer. Not with money. But, with the fair exchange if spending, goods and services. A quid pro quo. Not tax take with nothing in exchange. No, a freely spent money that increases revenue reduces taxes and increases tax take with a fair exchange of that money with goods. Win win win.
All this from all money moving rather than a little bit as we have now.
Fraser money hasent disappeared. It’s just not being used!so much of it we have to borrow it back?? Why?? It’s our bloody money. It’s withheld away outside our grasp. Why do we let the few hold the majority of money.? That’s not democratic. It’s not fair.
I've a friend in Blackpool who works in the evenings with a free meals charity there. She says once people have sourced the free food and start to claim in regularly they lose all incentive to cook themselves or provide for their children. What started out to cater for the homeless and genuinely desperate now is assumed to be for anyone who turns up, and to be a sort of grocery for entire families. They have never asked questions, people have never had to pass any sort of test of need, they assumed that nobody who didn't need the free food and meals wouldn't come. They do ..they even arrive in taxis. They now don't know which way to jump... means testing ? Doesn't sit well. But what is the answer ? Plenty are in real need but how do you weed out the rest ? The food's ok but nothing you'd want to live on for weeks & months.
Hi mate, Ive seen you writing a lot on this topic since your days at the Spectator and whilst I agree with a substantial amount of this, and most of what you say on the topic, one thing that you consistently seem to underplay is the quality of jobs/pay/conditions of the jobs available. When the only job available to a lot of young men is working in a warehouse or supermarket for minimum wage in awful conditions, the result is people fall out of work and dont return.
If we look at Craigneuk for example, the average resident will only receive one year of state pension which must save around £200,000 per person in pensions and pensioner benefits so it’s not all bad for the Treasury
There in a nutshell is why pensioners are targeted, having cuts, blamed for living too long and being told pensions are unaffordable after working 50+ years paying tens of hundreds of thousands in all kinds of taxes and NI over a lifetime. Savings taxed, personal pensions taxed, IHT etc etc. The whole system needs an overhaul and work obviously under this and the last Government doesn't pay. We are the last generation of grafters being shat on in favour of the idle. Videos show blind people with white sticks stopping to read and send texts, foreign people with walking frames / zimmers walking briskly along the pavements while the frame levitates! the money saved in fraudulent benefits would fund covert surveillance and pay quickly. The courts are too lean on fraudsters too, tens of thousands swindled and not even community service! even though they own property! they should repay in full + interest. I could go on all day its just shocking.
This is clearly an issue that will only continue to increase. It is a shame that reforms failed: I really think the Tories made a mistake by voting against the reforms. There needs to be tough action now, or it will be much harder to deal with in the future. Fiscally, I am very worried for the future: I think that the government will need to take an approach to curb spending, not just to prevent tax rises but to cut the deficit.
Look especially at Birmingham which has apparently rocketed up around the end of last year. The numbers don't look credible, but if they are right, there's something else going on. A large proportion of the population of Birmingham seem to have decided to register for employment benefit at about the same time. A fiddle?
Worth asking which producer vested interests in government and beyond benefit from this situation? And how to apply the carrot and stick to incentivise better outcomes?
Considering there's a 6 month data lag, does anyone know if Labour's recent-ish reforms earlier this year will change these statistics seen in this article in any meaningful way?
DWP forecasts suggest not
Is there any possibility that a small number of assessors are disproportionately responsible for signing people onto benefits? Is the cause stated anywhere in the data, and if so, are various mental health conditions listed?
Fraser, as always a well explained matter. But it’s easy to think it’s fraudulent. Shirkers or those playing the game., but that’s not the cause, it’s another symptom. I can’t remember when but maybe in the seventies, I first heard about shirkers and frauds in the benefits system. This is nothing new! It used to be doctors who decided ill health qualification. But, previous governments decided y to hey would decide to weed out those who shouldn’t get it. Now they use outsourcing to decide trying to use deliberately confusing questions not to weed out those who don’t deserve it but trap out those who do deserve welfare. It’s a shambles. The cost of policing it is so high it fails to cover its costs in savings. As for the unemployed, then they are just that. Any working person of working age not in work is unemployed!! And in that figure are the unemployable. Those who will never be given a job. That’s just a fact. Of course there are more claiming sickness. We have had Covid 19. It’s a killer but also a corrosive disease that affects people’s ability to be well. And you combine that with poor medical care, just ask solicitors chasing claims for negligence. The hospitals employ any Tom Dick or Harriet from anywhere to do the jobs cheaper than the best surgeons. Plus they put off medical procedures leaving those unable to work. You name it it’s explainable.
So I’m sorry Fraser, it’s just how it is! What is needed is to put right the causes of our distress not just point out the symptoms.
The whole problem is the government can’t get sufficient tax revenue from the pot that pays the tax because, the pot is devoid of enough money to attain the tax target required to pay the governments way!
There is a playing out of the reality that is … the rich get richer whilst the poor get poorer. … if you can’t see it Fraser, what you and I are witnessing is just that! … if you’ve ever wondered what it looks like, go to Blackpool, go to Clacton, Birmingham and Liverpool. You will see the poorest in our country. The weakest the most needy all together. They tend to be together where the economy is devoid of money. What do you think it would look like? Mayfair, Virginia water or sandbanks? Look, we are not living beyond our means. We are not providing sufficient money into the economy to produce the means we require to pay the tax revenue needed to pay the governments way! Our working pot is akin to Blackpool it’s devoid of money! No matter what tax rates are put in it the pot cannot produce the revenue to meet the tax burden.
Why? Because, must of our money, sterling pounds, us not in our pot! It’s sitting in bank accounts across the world not here, anywhere but here! They say, 95% of all money is held by 5% of the most wealthy people. I’m not sure if that’s true, but it shows most of our money is not in our working pot! It’s anywhere but!!
Those figures mean that 95% of us working in the pot, are fighting over just 5% of our money. No wonder we can’t pay our way!
And when we borrow our money back we borrow it from the rich 5% and what do they want? It all back plus more! Interest!!
Can you not see the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer?? You must see it Fraser.
Now imagine, if all our money, 19 trillion pounds of it were spent every month in our economy in Blackpool and Clacton etc can you not imagine the tax all that spending would bring in?
So much the coffers of the exchequer would be overflowing! 6.5 million would no longer be a burden but a petty cash voucher!
What we need is total spending. Exchange money cash for digital money. Digital account within UK. No money allowed to go out. Goods can flow but not money.,put a spend by date on it. Make all money rotate. A fair exchange of work. The resultant tsunami of revenue will mean we need only one tax. Vat. And so much spending will ensure more benefits not less. A much higher pension. Much higher wages. To show a clear gap over benefits. To show work really does pay. And ironically the rich will be richer. Not with money. But, with the fair exchange if spending, goods and services. A quid pro quo. Not tax take with nothing in exchange. No, a freely spent money that increases revenue reduces taxes and increases tax take with a fair exchange of that money with goods. Win win win.
All this from all money moving rather than a little bit as we have now.
Fraser money hasent disappeared. It’s just not being used!so much of it we have to borrow it back?? Why?? It’s our bloody money. It’s withheld away outside our grasp. Why do we let the few hold the majority of money.? That’s not democratic. It’s not fair.
I've a friend in Blackpool who works in the evenings with a free meals charity there. She says once people have sourced the free food and start to claim in regularly they lose all incentive to cook themselves or provide for their children. What started out to cater for the homeless and genuinely desperate now is assumed to be for anyone who turns up, and to be a sort of grocery for entire families. They have never asked questions, people have never had to pass any sort of test of need, they assumed that nobody who didn't need the free food and meals wouldn't come. They do ..they even arrive in taxis. They now don't know which way to jump... means testing ? Doesn't sit well. But what is the answer ? Plenty are in real need but how do you weed out the rest ? The food's ok but nothing you'd want to live on for weeks & months.
Hi mate, Ive seen you writing a lot on this topic since your days at the Spectator and whilst I agree with a substantial amount of this, and most of what you say on the topic, one thing that you consistently seem to underplay is the quality of jobs/pay/conditions of the jobs available. When the only job available to a lot of young men is working in a warehouse or supermarket for minimum wage in awful conditions, the result is people fall out of work and dont return.
If we look at Craigneuk for example, the average resident will only receive one year of state pension which must save around £200,000 per person in pensions and pensioner benefits so it’s not all bad for the Treasury
Brilliant analysis, and a very clear explanation of how to use the database. Many thanks indeed!
There in a nutshell is why pensioners are targeted, having cuts, blamed for living too long and being told pensions are unaffordable after working 50+ years paying tens of hundreds of thousands in all kinds of taxes and NI over a lifetime. Savings taxed, personal pensions taxed, IHT etc etc. The whole system needs an overhaul and work obviously under this and the last Government doesn't pay. We are the last generation of grafters being shat on in favour of the idle. Videos show blind people with white sticks stopping to read and send texts, foreign people with walking frames / zimmers walking briskly along the pavements while the frame levitates! the money saved in fraudulent benefits would fund covert surveillance and pay quickly. The courts are too lean on fraudsters too, tens of thousands swindled and not even community service! even though they own property! they should repay in full + interest. I could go on all day its just shocking.
"paid tax for a lifetime". Do you even realise that most pay in a pittance compared to what they take out.